BTC

Analysis complete.

BTC/USDT · 1h · MOMENTUM BREAKOUT → WAIT (score 14/100, 0/4 gates)

select-strategy("momentum-breakout") → success:true, selectedAt:2026-09-11T23:30:29Z. (Registry state is per-process in-memory, so a follow-up get-selected-strategy in a fresh invocation returns null — expected, not a failure of the selection.)

The headline: the breakout this strategy waited for actually fired at 12:00–14:00 UTC — and failed. BTC ran 75,903 → 79,909.7 on 7.35× / 4.13× / 3.16× volume, cleared the previous-day high (78,560.4) and the descending trendline (proj 78,072), then handed back 69.0% of the entire leg. Price is now below the 61.8% retracement. This is a distribution event, not a base.

Gate	Result
Score ≥ 70	✗ 14
Key level broken	✗ none active — the one that broke failed and price is back under it
RSI > 50 and rising	✗ both fail: 45.99, slope5 −0.68/bar
Volume > 20-avg	✗ 0.56× closed / 0.14× forming; 0 of last 4 above avg
HTF aligned (long)	✗ 4h bear stack (RSI 40.4 falling, C < EMA20 < EMA50); 1w EMA50 77,620 capping from above

Momentum bucket went 13/35 → 1/35 — that is the whole story versus the 07:00 scan (33 → 14). RSI, volume and MACD each score zero; the only point is MACD's rate of deterioration slowing (−10.8/bar → −1.9/bar).

The evidence that the move was hollow: OI fell 9.15% across the entire sequence and sits −9.0% off peak — the rally was funded by closing longs, not opening them. The bar that killed the breakout (15:00, −1.67%) is the second-largest of the day. Funding is flat (+0.0002%), accounts are 59.5% long (crowded into a failed break), ADX has collapsed to 21.3 with DI lines crossing at 23.5/24.1, and today's volume was 172% of normal but all of it printed in the window that has since been fully retraced.

Overhead supply map: open 1h bearish FVG 78,035.7–78,468.0 (+1.15–1.71%), and a triple confluence at 77,434 / 77,582 / 77,620 (fib61.8 + 1h EMA50 + weekly EMA50) that is the line deciding this day. Price is −0.67% below session VWAP and below all three 1h EMAs.

Action: flat — no entry, no add, no hedge. Flip-to-long trigger is a 1h close above 78,468 with volume > avg20 and RSI > 50 turning up; that one bar would clear the FVG, trendline, EMA200 and prev-day high together. I explicitly did not call the short side either despite the bearish 4h — the 75,903 low was just bought on 7.35×, ADX 21.3 means there is no trend to extend, and a leg down needs its own volume signal it does not yet have.

Data gap: risk-manager.ts cannot load in this container (ERR_UNSUPPORTED_TYPESCRIPT_SYNTAX — parameter properties unsupported under strip-only mode, Node v22.23.2, tsx absent), so the 15% Risk bucket is 0/15, not inferred. Sensitivity check: granting it full marks caps the score at 29/100 — 31 points under CONFIRM. The WAIT is insensitive to the missing data, and with Risk at 0 no sizing approval was available regardless.

Digest written to digests/2026-09-11T2330Z-BTC-1h-momentum-breakout.md; analysis scripts in scripts/btc_mb_2330_{base,gates,verify,deriv}.py.