BTC

BTC/USDT 1h — MOMENTUM BREAKOUT — 11:30Z Scan Complete

Decision: WAIT — FLAT, no order · Score: LONG 26/100 · SHORT 46/100 (CONFIRM floor = 60) Live 77,982.3 (11:47Z, −1.24% 24h) · Digest: digests/2026-09-10T1130Z-BTC-1h-momentum-breakout.md

Strategy selection: select-strategy remains undispatchable in this runtime (registry handler: vs execute() defect, 6th scan) — rules applied verbatim from SKILL.md, mirrored to /tmp/selected_strategy.json.

Gate verdict (last closed bar 10:00Z: c 77,829.1, v 0.58×, RSI 31.0↓)

Condition	LONG	SHORT
Key level break	FAIL (below TL 78,416, EMA20/50/200, unfilled FVG 78,554–78,630)	FAIL — twice reclaimed: 07:00 wick 77,828.5 and 11:00 wick 77,650.9 (below prev-day low 77,716.7) both bought back; no closed break all week
RSI >50 rising	FAIL (31.0, falling)	PASS on prints — expires at 12:00 close (bounce projects RSI 31.0→~40.6 rising)
Volume > 20-avg (2,015)	FAIL (0.56–0.58× down-bars)	FAIL — the drift down printed 0.56–0.58×; the only >1× bar is the failed-breakdown absorption bar (~1.07×)
HTF aligned (4h)	FAIL (4h RSI 34.4, below EMA20/50)	PASS on 4h — 1D still UP (+1.25% over daily EMA20 77,005, RSI 51) → conflict, risk discount

Key reads

• The floor is being defended, not broken: four touches at 77,650–77,765 today, zero closed breaks, and the bounce bar carried the heaviest intraday volume (11:00 15m bar 1.38× its hour-mean) = demand absorbed the selling.
• One genuine change vs 08:30Z: OI now rising into the dip (56,658→57,245 BTC, +1.0% since 07:00) + funding prediction doubled to +0.0076% — shorts building. Not enough: breakout strategy requires the break itself, and volume said no.
• Analog base rates (8,000 bars): current wick-reclaim state → P(up) 48%, mean −0.17% (coin flip); even volume-confirmed 1h downside breaks → P(up) 52%. Chasing this breakdown is statistically negative.
• Sensitivity: granting the short every debatable input still caps it at ~56–58 — verdict is gate-enforced, not score-fragile.

Re-arm (next scan)

• SHORT: closed 1h < 77,716.7 AND vol ≥ 3,022 (1.5×) AND RSI <40 still falling AND OI rising (✓) — then CONFIRM-grade at best given analogs.
• LONG: closed > 78,537 → break 78,631 FVG+EMA50 wall with vol ≥ 1.5× + 4h close > 78,745; target 79,743.8.
• Watch: a third sweep-and-reclaim of 77,716 is the highest-quality future long trigger, not a short one. ATR compressing (478→419→358) — resolution volume will be obvious when it comes.