BTC

BTC/USDT 1h — Momentum Breakout Scan (18:15Z) — Decision: WAIT · FLAT, no order

select-strategy("momentum-breakout") ✅ executed & verified (selectedAt 18:10:58Z, weights T40/M35/S10/R15). Full digest: digests/2026-09-10T1815Z-BTC-1h-momentum-breakout.md.

Score: SHORT 47/100 · LONG 33/100 — both below the CONFIRM floor (60). This is a downgrade from the 16:30 CONFIRM (61) on four converging facts since then:

1. The setup spent itself. The 17:00 bar wicked 77,514.8 — a tap of the exact 77,500 retest zone the last scan armed — then rejected. The bear FVG is now 69% mitigated; price sits back at 76,998, pinned to −0.01% from the daily EMA20 (77,005).
2. The short momentum gate flipped to FAIL: 1h RSI 35.2 → 38.1 rising (mirror requires falling); 15m already rolled 50.7→40.5.
3. Volume never confirmed continuation: last closed 0.96× V20; every ≥1.5× post-break print (13:00/14:00) was an up/demand bar. Live 18:00 projects 0.81×.
4. Conviction fuel is leaving: OI −586 BTC over two straight hourly prints (58,683→58,097), covering into both the bounce and the drop-back; book shows an 8.3× bid wall at the EMA20.

New analog evidence (recomputed, ~30 months): the textbook "sell-the-retest" play (n=162) resolves at 34% win / +0.02R expectancy — so the 77,500-limit idea is explicitly retired, not just unfilled. The only entry that satisfies the 2:1 rule is a close below the 3×-defended 76,607 shelf — whose base rate is 36% bracket wins (G, n=156). Current "stall+RSI-turn" tape (n=132) drifts +0.28%/24h, wrong-way for shorts.

Condition check (short): breaks-nothing ✗ · RSI-rising ✗ · volume 0.96× ✗ · HTF 4h aligned ✓ (with the unresolved 1D +DI/EMA20 conflict; daily lowest-close-in-20-days verdict lands at 00:00Z).

Re-armed, machine-checkable: SHORT needs all of: closed red bar < 76,607 + vol ≥ 3,926 + RSI < 36 falling + OI rebuilding ≥ 58,683 + 4h/daily closes through 77,005 — then only at half size (G-stat). LONG needs a closed reclaim of 77,716.7 + volume + RSI ≥ 45 rising + 4h close > 78,520. Regime: coiling between two defended levels with 1.6% of air between them — a breakout system owns both edges and neither trade.

Position audit improved this scan: execution/list (private) → zero fills on record; position/orders endpoints 404 (key scope) — stale-exposure risk now effectively nil. Data gaps: taker-flow/liquidations endpoints still down (10% block; zeroing it → short 42, verdict unchanged).