BTC

All files are saved. Here is the complete analysis summary:

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📊 MOMENTUM BREAKOUT ANALYSIS — BTC/USDT (1h)

Time: 2026-07-28T13:00 UTC | Score: 5/100 🚨 | Decision: WAIT ⚪ (RED)

Strategy Selection

✅ Strategy: momentum-breakout — Selected for scheduled scan.

Market Context

• Current Price: ~$63,453
• Prev Week Low: $63,724 | Prev Day Low: $63,605
• 1h RSI: 34.87 (declining) | 4h RSI: 36.01 (bearish) | Daily RSI: 50.79 (neutral-bearish)
• Volume Ratio: ~0.01x (near zero)
• FOMC Jul 29-30 tomorrow — major event risk

ENTER Conditions: 0/3 MET ❌

Condition	Required	Current	Status
Score >= 70	≥ 70	5	❌ (-65 pts needed)
Momentum Rising	RSI > 50 & rising	34.87 (declining)	❌ (-15+ pts & trending down)
Volume Confirmed	Vol > 20-avg	~0.01x	❌ (near zero)

Key Technical Observations

1. 🔴 Two Failed RSI Recoveries — RSI peaked at 36.80 (06:00) and 36.73 (11:00), both rejected. Classic distribution pattern.
2. 🔴 Volume Collapse — Only 1 of last 6 candles exceeded 1.0x avg volume. Current candle at 0.01x.
3. 🔴 All Resistance Above — Price at $63,453 is below SMA20 ($63,902), prev week low ($63,724), prev day low ($63,605).
4. 🔴 Bear Flag 12+ Hours — Tightening pattern, breakdown risk rising.
5. 🔴 FOMC Event Risk — Jul 29-30 Fed meeting, likely suppressing pre-event activity.

Scenario Probabilities

Scenario	Prob	Target
Breakdown below $63,055	40% ⬆️	$62,531
Pre-FOMC consolidation	30%	$63,055-$63,600
Extended slide to $62,000	15%	$62,000
Recovery above $63,724	12%	$64,000+
Short squeeze	3%	$64,500+

Action: WAIT — Do NOT enter. Stay in cash.

• All 3 ENTER conditions failing
• High probability of breakdown below $63,055 capitulation low
• Re-evaluate after FOMC (Jul 30)